NHL Shots on Goal Props: Players With the Best Over Hit Rates in the Last 25 Games

Why Shots on Goal Props Are Among the Most Bettable NHL Markets

Shots on goal props have quietly become one of the sharpest edges available to NHL bettors. Unlike goal-scoring markets, which are heavily influenced by goaltending variance and in-game score effects, shots on goal reflect underlying player behavior that is remarkably stable over time. A forward who attacks the net habitually will do so whether his team is up two goals or tied in the third period. That consistency is exactly what prop bettors crave.

The standard line in this market sits at 1.5 shots, meaning you need a player to register at least two shots on goal in a game to cash the over. At first glance that sounds easy — but plenty of role players and defensive forwards struggle to clear this threshold with any regularity. The players listed below, however, have been hitting it at elite rates, making them among the most attractive names on the prop board right now.

Tracking hit rates over rolling windows like the last 10 and last 25 games gives bettors a much cleaner picture than season-long averages alone. A player coming off an injury or a line-change adjustment might have a misleading season rate, while their recent trajectory tells the real story. The eight players highlighted in this piece have all demonstrated sustained excellence over the last 25-game stretch — and several are putting up perfect or near-perfect numbers over their last 10.

The Elite Tier: 23-of-25 Hit Rates

Three players share the top spot on our leaderboard with an identical 23/25 over hit rate on the 1.5 shots line, and the consistency each brings is remarkable for different reasons.

Leo Carlsson of the Anaheim Ducks has been an absolute revelation. The young center has gone a perfect 10-for-10 over his last 10 games while sitting at 23/25 across the broader window. His season-long hit rate of 76.9% confirms this is not a hot streak built on noise — Carlsson is generating shot attempts at a consistent, high volume. For a rebuilding Ducks team that often plays in close games, Carlsson's relentless net-driving is one of the few bankable constants.

Dylan Holloway of the St. Louis Blues mirrors Carlsson almost exactly: a perfect 10/10 over his last 10 games and 23/25 over the last 25, with a season rate of 76.3%. Holloway has developed into a high-motor winger whose shot generation has become a defining trait of his game. When a player is clearing a line this reliably and still going 10-for-10 in his most recent sample, that is about as strong a signal as the market provides.

Alex Ovechkin rounds out the 23/25 club, and his case may be the most compelling of all. The Washington Capitals legend sits at 9/10 over his last 10 games and 23/25 over 25, but what truly separates him is a season hit rate of 84.2% — the second highest among this group. Ovechkin's entire game is built around getting to his spots and unleashing his shot. At this stage of his career he is arguably more selective and effective than ever, and bettors who have been fading him on this line have been losing at a steep rate.

The 22-of-25 Group: Deep Value Across Multiple Teams

Five players sit at 22/25, and two of them stand out immediately for their season-long context. Brady Tkachuk of the Ottawa Senators leads the entire leaderboard with a season hit rate of 91.2% — by far the highest of any player in this dataset. His last-25 mark of 22/25 actually undersells how dominant he has been all season. Tkachuk's physical, grinding style means he creates shot opportunities through sheer force of will, and his 8/10 mark over the last 10 games remains excellent even if it trails his seasonal pace slightly.

Kyle Connor, listed with the ATL designation, is another standout at 22/25 with a perfect 10/10 over his last 10 games and a season rate of 85.2%. Connor is a natural scorer whose shooting instincts are consistently rewarded with high shot volumes. When a player's last-10 is flawless and his season rate sits above 85%, bettors would be wise to pay attention.

Matt Boldy of the Minnesota Wild brings an 8/10 recent window and 22/25 over 25, backed by a strong 83.3% season rate. Boldy has emerged as Minnesota's most dangerous offensive weapon, and his shot generation reflects that elevated role. Meanwhile, Alex Laferriere of the Los Angeles Kings comes in at 9/10 and 22/25 with a season rate of 70.9% — the lowest in this group, but still well above the break-even threshold most sportsbooks require on these props.

Completing the 22/25 tier is Brandon Montour of the Seattle Kraken, a defenseman who has carved out a reputation as one of the most active offensive blueliners in the league. At 9/10 over his last 10 games and 22/25 over the broader window, with a season rate of 79.4%, Montour represents genuine value. Offensive defensemen on the power play regularly exceed the 1.5 shots threshold, and Montour's numbers confirm he is doing it with remarkable frequency.

How to Use Hit-Rate Data in Your NHL Prop Betting Process

Raw hit rates are powerful, but they work best when combined with situational context. Before betting any of the players above, consider factors like opponent penalty-kill efficiency (which affects power-play shot volume), whether the player's team is projected to be in a high- or low-scoring game, and any recent line-change news that could affect ice time. Even a player hitting 23/25 can have a bad night if he is moved to the fourth line or his team plays a trap-heavy defensive style.

One of the best ways to integrate this data systematically is by pulling real-time lines and historical results through a dedicated data layer. Tools like a player props API allow you to automate the tracking of hit rates across rolling windows and compare them against the lines being posted by sportsbooks. When a player with an 85%+ season rate is priced at standard juice on a 1.5 line, that is a mathematical edge worth exploiting — but you need reliable data infrastructure to identify it consistently.

It is also worth noting that bookmakers are not blind to these trends. Heavy public action on high-hit-rate players sometimes causes lines to move or odds to tighten. Checking NHL odds data frequently and acting early when you spot value is a key discipline for any serious prop bettor. The players in this article have been consistent enough that the edge may persist, but line shopping and timing will always matter at the margins.

Finally, think about building a tracker or spreadsheet that records outcomes game by game. Watching whether a player's hit rate reverts toward the seasonal mean or continues to climb tells you a great deal about whether recent form represents a genuine improvement or a temporary hot streak. The data in this post gives you the starting point — your ongoing process turns it into a repeatable betting system.