Hit Rate

Hit rate is a backward-looking frequency: how often a result has actually occurred over a recent sample. For a player prop, it answers questions like "how many of this player’s last 10 games went over 22.5 points?" Expressed as a fraction (e.g. 7/10) or percentage (70%), it gives a quick read on form and consistency against a specific threshold.

Hit rates are typically computed over standard rolling windows — last 5 (L5), last 10 (L10), last 25 (L25), and full season — so you can see whether recent form diverges from the longer baseline. A player hitting 4/5 in L5 but 12/25 over L25 is on a hot streak relative to their norm. The line matters: a hit rate is only meaningful relative to the exact prop line and direction it was measured against.

Hit rate is a useful signal but not a probability. It does not account for the price you’re paying, opponent and matchup context, injuries, or sample size, and small windows are noisy. The strongest workflows pair hit rate with expected value or edge so that a high frequency is only acted on when the price also offers value — frequency tells you what happened, EV tells you whether the bet is worth making.