Glossary

Moneyline

A moneyline is a bet on which team or player will win an event outright, with no point spread involved.

The moneyline is the simplest bet type: you pick the winner. There is no spread to cover — the only question is who wins. Because the two sides are rarely evenly matched, the price reflects each side’s strength. Favorites carry negative American odds (you risk more than you win), and underdogs carry positive odds (you win more than you risk).

The prices encode each side’s implied probability. A -200 favorite implies a 66.7% win chance and pays $100 profit on a $200 stake; a +180 underdog implies 35.7% and pays $180 profit on a $100 stake. As with any market, the two sides include vig, so their raw implied probabilities sum to more than 100% — removing it yields the fair moneyline.

Moneylines are the natural unit for many analytics because they map directly to win probability. They underpin no-vig fair-value calculations, are the basis for converting between odds and probability, and feed expected-value and arbitrage checks. For closely matched events the moneyline can be near a coin flip; for lopsided matchups the favorite’s price grows steep, which is why bettors often weigh moneylines against spreads to find the better value.